Do we make New Year’s resolutions to ignore them? Are they merely promises doomed to fail? In this feature, we ask whether, statistically speaking, these resolutions work, and what increases the chances of success.
How can we make a success of this year’s resolutions?
New Year’s resolutions are an ancient tradition that continues to this day.
The Babylonians started each year with pledges to pay debts and return borrowed items.
The Romans began their year by promising the two-faced god, Janus, that they would behave better.
In modern societies, many people still promise to make changes as the new year dawns; this desire, in many cases, is fueled by the excesses of the holiday period.
Most commonly, it would seem, New Year’s resolutions revolve around weight loss, quitting smoking, reducing drinking, and exercising more.
Although resolutions are popular, they are not always successful. In this article, we will dissect the evidence and answer the question: Should we bother making New Year’s resolutions in 2020?
How effective are annual resolutions?
A study from 1989 tracked 200 people living in Pennsylvania as they attempted to make changes based on New Year’s resolutions.
On average, the participants made 1.8 resolutions, most commonly, to stop smoking or lose weight. Less frequently, people pledged to improve relationships, and a surprisingly low 2.5% were hoping to control their drinking habits.
An impressive 77% managed to hold to their pledges for 1 week, but the success rate dropped to 19% over 2 years. Although that is a substantial drop out rate, it means that 1 in 5 of those participants achieved their goal.
Of the 77% successful resolvers, more than half slipped at least once, and, on average, people slipped 14 times across the 2 years.
A study in the Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology in 1988 followed the efforts of 153 New Year’s resolvers who were determined to quit smoking.
At 1 month, 77% of participants had managed at least one 24-hour period of abstinence. Overall, though, the results seemed a little disappointing with the authors writing:
“Only 13% of the sample was abstinent at 1 year, and 19% reported abstinence at the 2-year follow-up.”
Another study, appearing in PLOS ONE, took a more general look at behavior. The research team tracked the food shopping habits of 207 households from July 2010 to March 2011.
Unsurprisingly, the researchers found that, during the holiday period, expenditure increased by 15%. Three-quarters of this increase went on less healthful items.
Also, as expected, when January rolled around, the sale of healthful items shot up by 29.4%.
However, the sale of less healthful items did not drop in tandem with this health drive — people were buying more nutritious items, but still purchasing the same amount of unhealthful food.
Overall, the number of calories they purchased in the New Year was higher than during the holiday period. The authors conclude:
“Despite resolutions to eat more healthfully after New Year’s, consumers may adjust to a new ‘status quo’ of increased less-health[ful] food purchasing during the holidays, and dubiously fulfill their New Year’s resolutions by spending more on health[ful] foods.”
The authors believe that the key to successful resolutions is to focus on replacing unhealthful items with healthful ones, rather than buying both.
That is sound advice, but not necessarily easy to implement.
Ending on a high
Some of the results above might cast a shadow across ambitions to make a change in 2020, but they shouldn’t.
The authors of the study above made some overarching conclusions that should boost the confidence of any New Year’s resolver:
“Resolvers reported higher rates of success than nonresolvers; at six months, 46% of the resolvers were continuously successful compared to 4% of the nonresolvers.”
So, although the cards might be stacked against anyone who plans to make a New Year’s resolution, only by making that resolution, you have boosted your odds of success.
According to this data, forming a New Year’s resolution increases your chances of generating change more than 10-fold.
The authors write that, “[C]ontrary to widespread public opinion, a considerable proportion of New Year resolvers do succeed, at least in the short run.”
In conclusion, New Year’s resolutions do not work for everyone. But, as the saying goes, “you’ve got to be in it to win it.”
If you are considering resolving 2020, according to the findings of these studies, the best approach is to keep things around you to remind you why you want to make those changes.
Also, reward yourself for successes, and stay motivated. Throw a healthy dose of willpower into the seasonal mix, and you are likely to succeed. Good luck!Addiction, Alcohol, Fitness, Illegal Drugs, New Year's Resolutions, obesity, weight loss